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This paper presents the results of Argonne National Laboratory's assessment of the fuel-cycle energy and emissions impacts of 13 combinations of fuels and propulsion systems that are potential candidates for light-duty vehicles with tripled fuel economy (3X vehicles). These vehicles are being developed by the Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles (PNGV). Eleven fuels were considered: reformulated gasoline (RFG), reformulated diesel (RFD), methanol, ethanol, dimethyl ether, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), compressed natural gas (CNG), liquefied natural gas (LNG), biodiesel, Fischer-Tropsch diesel and hydrogen. RFG, methanol, ethanol, LPG, CNG and LNG were assumed to be burned in spark-ignition, direct-injection (SIDI) engines. RFD, Fischer-Tropsch diesel, biodiesel and dimethyl ether were assumed to be burned in compression-ignition, direct-injection (CIDI) engines. Hydrogen, RFG and methanol were assumed to be used in fuel-cell vehicles.

Recent advances in fuel-cell technology and low-emission, direct-injection spark-ignition and diesel engines for vehicles could significantly change the transportation vehicle power plant landscape in the next decade or so. This paper is a scoping study that compares total fuel cycle options for providing power to personal transport vehicles. The key question asked is, “How much of the energy from the fuel feedstock is available for motive power?” Emissions of selected criteria pollutants and greenhouse gases are qualitatively discussed. This analysis illustrates the differences among options; it is not intended to be exhaustive. Cases considered are hydrogen fuel from methane and from iso-octane in generic proton-exchange membrane (PEM) fuel-cell vehicles, methane and iso-octane in spark-ignition (SI) engine vehicles, and diesel fuel (from methane or petroleum) in direct-injection (DI) diesel engine vehicles.

A methodology for evaluating life cycle cost of electric vehicles (EVs) to their buyers is presented. The methodology is based on an analysis of conventional vehicle costs, costs of drivetrain and auxiliary components unique to EVs, and battery costs. The conventional vehicle's costs are allocated to such subsystems as body, chassis, and powertrain. In electric vehicles, an electric drive is substituted for the conventional powertrain. The current status of the electric drive components and battery costs is evaluated. Battery costs are estimated by evaluating the material requirements and production costs at different production levels; battery costs are also collected from other sources. Costs of auxiliary components, such as those for heating and cooling the passenger compartment, are also estimated. Here, the methodology is applied to two vehicle types: subcompact car and minivan.

This paper evaluates the total lifecycle impacts for hauling freight long distances over land in the United States. The dominant modes of surface freight transport in the United States are large motor trucks (tractor-semitrailer combinations) and trains. These vehicles account for a significant portion of the transportation sector's petroleum usage and atmospheric emissions (among which nitrogen oxides and particulate matter are especially important). The objective of this paper is to evaluate the potential for reductions in energy use (in particular, petroleum use) and atmospheric emissions that result from freight transport, possibly as the result of research and development on improved technology or alternative fuels, such as Fischer-Tropsch diesel and natural gas, or from mode shifts in competitive markets. The impacts examined include energy use, both in toto and the petroleum fraction, and emissions of greenhouse gases and nitrogen oxides and particulate matter.

A two-stage Delphi study was conducted to collect information that would enable a technical and economic assessment of electric (EV) and hybrid electric (HEV) vehicles. The first-stage worldwide survey was completed in fall 1994 while the second-stage was completed by summer 1995. The paper reports results from the second round of the survey and the major differences between the two rounds. This second-stage international survey obtained information from 93 expert respondents from the automotive technology field. The second stage response provided the following key results. EVs will penetrate the market first followed by internal combustion engine powered HEVs while gas turbine and fuel cell powered HEVs will not have any significant penetration until after 2020. By 2020 EVs and internal combustion engine powered HEVs are projected to have approximately a 15% share of the new vehicle market.

The Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles (PNGV) is linking the research efforts of a broad spectrum of U.S. Federal agencies and laboratories with those of the domestic auto manufacturers in pursuit of three specific, interrelated goals: 1) reduce manufacturing production costs and product development times for all car and truck production; 2) pursue advanced technologies for near-term vehicle improvements that increase fuel efficiency and reduce emissions of standard vehicles; and 3) within the next decade, develop a new class of vehicle that will achieve up to three times the fuel efficiency of today's comparable vehicle, and, at the same time, cost no more to own and drive than today's automobile, maintain performance, size, and utility of comparable vehicles, and meet or exceed safety and emission requirements.

Safety issues and current transport (shipment and b-vehicle use) and environmental regulations applicable to sodium-sulfur batteries for electric vehicles are summarized, and an assessment technique is suggested for evaluating potential hazards relative to commonly accepted risks. It is found that shipment regulations do not directly apply to sodium-sulfur batteries. Disposal hazards need to be quantified and decommissioning procedures need to be developed to comply with the environmental regulations. The risk assessment could be used to help commercialize sodium-sulfur and other advanced batteries in electric vehicles.

The performance of advanced Zn/Br2, LiAl/FeS, Na/S, Ni/Fe, and Fe/Air batteries in electric vans was compared to that of tubular lead-acid technology. The MARVEL computer analysis system evaluated these batteries for the G-Van and IDSEP vehicles over two driving schedules. Each of the advanced batteries exhibited the potential for major improvements in both range and life cycle cost compared with tubular lead-acid. A sensitivity analysis revealed specific energy, battery initial cost, and cycle life to be the dominant factors in reducing life cycle cost for the case of vans powered by tubular lead-acid batteries.

It is generally recognized chat methanol is the best candidate for long-term replacement of petroleum-based fuels at soma time in the future. The transition from an established fuel to a new fuel, and vehicles that can use the new fuel, is difficult, however. This paper discusses two independent investigations of possible transition uses of methanol, which, when combined, may provide an option for introduction of methanol that takes advantage of the existing industrial base, and provides economic incentives to the consumer. The concept combines the intermediate blends of methanol and gasoline (50%-70% methanol) with the Flexible Fuel Vehicle. In addition to a possible maximum cost effectiveness, these fuels ease vehicle range restrictions due to refueling logistics, and mitigate cold starting problems, while at the same time providing most of the performance of the higher concentration blends.

A methodology has been developed for identifying the combination of battery characteristics which lead to least-cost electric vehicles. Battery interrelationships include specific power vs, specific energy, peak power vs. specific energy and DOD, cycle life vs. DOD, cost vs. specific energy and peak power, and volumetric and battery size effects. The method is illustrated for the “second car” mission assuming lead/acid batteries. Reductions in life-cycle costs associated with future battery research breakthroughs are estimated using a sensitivity technique. A research prioritization system is described.